Wicked: For Good is poised to become one of the biggest box office hits of 2025, according to early estimates and industry projections. After a bumpy start, the film industry is finally seeing a resurgence, with 'Predator: Badlands' dominating the box office with an impressive $80 million global opening. But the real excitement is building around the highly anticipated 'Wicked: For Good', which is expected to make a significant impact when it hits theaters on November 21, 2025.
The sequel to the hit musical 'Wicked' is set to make waves, with potential domestic opening figures ranging from $160 to $190 million, according to Box Office Theory. This is a significant increase from the initial estimates of $112 to $115 million, which were already in line with the success of the first film. The Hollywood Reporter's more optimistic projections of $115 to $120 million further solidify the film's potential for box office success.
In comparison to other 2025 releases, 'Wicked: For Good' is in a strong position. The biggest domestic opening weekends of the year belong to 'A Minecraft Movie' ($162.7 million), 'Lilo & Stitch' ($146 million), 'Superman' ($125 million), and 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' ($117.6 million). However, the musical's strong audience engagement and the potential for international success, given the film's popularity and the opportunity for audiences to catch up via VOD and streaming, make it a strong contender for the top spot.
The sequel's narrative centers on the estranged Elphaba (Cynthia Erivo) and Glinda (Ariana Grande), who are living with the consequences of their choices. Elphaba, demonized as the Wicked Witch of the West, continues her fight for the freedom of Oz's silenced animals while also trying to expose the truth about the Wizard (Jeff Goldblum).
The film's success is further bolstered by the decision to split the story into two movies, a strategy that Universal Pictures is likely to be proud of. The Thanksgiving holiday frame also bodes well for the film's performance, as the first 'Wicked' movie had a strong second weekend, dropping only 28% due to holiday turnout. If 'Wicked: For Good' can achieve a similar performance, it could gross over $1 billion globally.
The box office landscape in 2025 has been challenging, with October being the worst October at the box office since 1997. However, November promises to be a brighter month with the arrival of 'The Running Man' and Disney's 'Zootopia 2'. The industry is eagerly awaiting the success of 'Wicked: For Good', which could be a much-needed boost for theaters after a difficult summer.
