Looking for a pitcher to bounce back in 2026? We've got you covered. In this article, we'll explore two potential rebound candidates for the upcoming season: Aaron Nola and Bryce Miller.
Aaron Nola: A Familiar Story?
Aaron Nola, a starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, has a history of ERA fluctuations. In 2025, his ERA soared to 6.01, a significant jump from previous years. This was partly due to a season-ending injury, a stress reaction in his right rib cage, and a sprained ankle that sidelined him for over three months. Despite these setbacks, Nola's performance still raised some eyebrows.
His LOB% (62.4%) and BABIP (.315) were notably low, suggesting some bad luck. However, his strikeout rate (24%) and walk rate (6.9%) remained relatively stable. Interestingly, his K-BB% (17.1%) ranked 38th out of 143 pitchers with at least 90 innings, indicating a slight dip in his ability to induce weak contact.
Nola's ERA indicators, such as SIERA (3.81) and xFIP (3.71), were more promising than his xERA (4.20) and FIP (4.58). His four-seam velocity averaged just 91.9 mph, the lowest since 2016, but it picked up to 92.2 mph after his return from injury, aligning with his quality 2024 campaign.
At 33 years old, Nola's arm mileage and recent injury history are concerns. His ERA has been unpredictable even during his prime, and pitchers like him, who pound the strike zone and give up homers, tend to underperform their peripherals. While 2025 might be a harbinger of doom, Nola's injury-free record since 2016 and recent performance suggest a potential rebound.
Bryce Miller: The Mystery Unveiled
Bryce Miller, a starting pitcher for the Seattle Mariners, experienced a drastic year-over-year drop in run values. At 26 years old, this decline can't be attributed to age. The explanation lies in his lack of health throughout the 2025 season.
Miller's first eight starts saw a 5.22 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 20.1% strikeout rate, and 12.1% walk rate. He was then placed on the injured list with right elbow inflammation, which later revealed a bone spur. Despite a PRP injection, Miller's struggles continued, with a 5.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his final eight regular-season outings.
However, Miller's velocity increased during this period, averaging 95.3 mph with his four-seam pitch, similar to his 2024 average. In the playoffs, he topped 96 mph and posted a 2.51 ERA with a 9:5 K:BB in 14.1 innings. Miller's control and command deteriorated in 2025, with a higher walk rate and Location+ score.
The key to Miller's success might lie in his mechanics. When pitchers are hurt, they often change their release points, affecting pitch action. Miller's spin rate increased on all his pitches, and his control and command suffered. However, his recent throwing video and velocity increase are encouraging signs.
Despite his struggles, drafting Miller might be risky. Investing in a pitcher with a known elbow problem and a substandard strikeout rate is not advisable, especially after a down season. However, his potential for a rebound is worth considering, given his recent improvements and the possibility of a gel cortisone injection to aid his recovery.
