The Euro is in a tough spot, and it’s all eyes on the US right now. But here’s where it gets controversial: despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone industrial production data, the EUR/USD pair remains stubbornly stuck below 1.1640, trading at 1.1635 as of this writing. It’s teetering dangerously close to one-month lows at 1.1618, leaving many to wonder why the Euro isn’t getting more love. And this is the part most people miss: while the Eurozone’s November industrial production grew a steady 0.7% (beating the 0.5% forecast), the currency’s bearish trend from late December highs remains intact. Why? Because the US Dollar is flexing its muscles, backed by a string of robust macroeconomic data and easing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.
Let’s break it down. On Wednesday, US producer prices surged more than expected, and retail sales rebounded strongly in November. These numbers give the Fed solid reasons to keep interest rates steady in the coming months. But here’s the kicker: President Trump’s reassurance that he won’t oust Fed Chairman Jerome Powell—despite the ongoing criminal investigation—has calmed markets. This move, however, has sparked debate. Some argue it’s a necessary step to stabilize markets, while others see it as political interference. What do you think? Is Trump’s intervention a stabilizing force or a risky precedent?
Now, all eyes are on the NY Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing reports, set to confirm the US economic outlook’s improvement in Q4 2025. These figures will set the stage for speeches from Fed policymakers later today. Meanwhile, the Euro’s performance against other major currencies today shows it’s strongest against the Canadian Dollar, as seen in the table below.
| Base Currency | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|--------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.11% | 0.16% | -0.20% | -0.07% | 0.02% |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.13% | 0.12% | -0.24% | -0.11% | -0.02% |
| GBP | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.11% | 0.15% | -0.21% | -0.09% | 0.00% |
| JPY | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.11% | 0.25% | -0.10% | -0.01% | 0.12% |
| CAD | -0.16% | -0.12% | -0.15% | -0.25% | -0.35% | -0.24% | -0.13% |
| AUD | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.35% | 0.13% | 0.22% |
| NZD | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.24% | -0.13% | 0.09% |
| CHF | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.12% | 0.13% | -0.22% | -0.09% |
This heat map illustrates how major currencies are moving against each other. For instance, if you look at the Euro (base) against the US Dollar (quote), you’ll see a -0.04% change, highlighting the Euro’s struggle.
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.1635, trapped in a descending channel since late December. The MACD hovers around the zero line, signaling a neutral tone, while the RSI dips to 38, suggesting growing bearish momentum. Bears are eyeing the January 9 low near 1.1615, with further support at 1.1600 and 1.1590. On the flip side, resistance levels are at 1.1660, 1.1690, and 1.1700. But here’s the question: With the US Dollar dominating and the Euro struggling, is this the new normal, or will the Euro stage a comeback? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s debate!
